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newfan commented on a news article Dec 15th 2013, 7:32pm
People have been under-estimating O'keeffe all season. She was injured during FL last year and for most of the track season as a freshman. She only gradually came back to run in the final couple of meets to have the experience of the state meet. Her 1600 and 3200 times from last spring tell little about how fast she is. But, we shall see.
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SLVTrack1
what you Posted about Anna Maxwell 3200m 10:24 after Arcadia was Wrong. CCS Championships She Doubled with 2.5 Hour break 4:42 1600m and 10:22 3200m also State 4:50 1600m Trials, 4:47 1600m Finals and Came Back in 10:25 3200m! 100 plus Degree Weather Both Days. After Arcadia She Was Doubling all the Way to State. Very Hard to Do In California, a 1st Place and 3rd Place finish at State in Cali.
Not That Guy
Agreed on the divisions causing too much fragmentation in CA races. It can be hard to gauge performances by strong runners in D4 or D5 races, as they are often soloing their runs, and who knows if they would run faster (or crumble) if they had someone to race against.

As for Shehadeh's fall and recovery - that's the first I'd heard of it; very impressive! Thanks for pointing that out.

Bill Meylan, on , said:

Thanks for the correction on the Stanford Invite divisions ... I wish the California girls could race head-to-head more often than seems possible due to the divisional setup.

The Girls Footlocker race ... In a post-race interview, Anoush Shehadeh (who finished 4th) said she took a "face-plant" and fell back to next-to-last place early in the race ... Watching some video replays of the race on MileSplit, Anoush Shehadeh was indeed gapped behind the field in next-to-last place in the opening 800 meters ... she can be seen to steadily move up throughout the race and finish a very strong 4th ... It was a super effort that deserves some praise!
Bill Meylan

Not That Guy, on , said:

A couple minor clarifications: Maxwell had the fastest time of the day at Stanford, but both she and O'Keeffe won their respective races (quote below implies Maxwell beating O'Keeffe in direct competition, which wasn't the case). At Mt. Sac, O'Keeffe won by 20 seconds over a strong field and essentially solo'd the last two miles, so not sure that her race/effort was much different from Maxwell's similar victory.

In any event, both had fantastic seasons, and it will be interesting to see them compete in track this season. I predict Maxwell has edge at 1600 meters and O'Keeffe is slightly better at 3200.


Thanks for the correction on the Stanford Invite divisions ... I wish the California girls could race head-to-head more often than seems possible due to the divisional setup.

The Girls Footlocker race ... In a post-race interview, Anoush Shehadeh (who finished 4th) said she took a "face-plant" and fell back to next-to-last place early in the race ... Watching some video replays of the race on MileSplit, Anoush Shehadeh was indeed gapped behind the field in next-to-last place in the opening 800 meters ... she can be seen to steadily move up throughout the race and finish a very strong 4th ... It was a super effort that deserves some praise!
Not That Guy
A couple minor clarifications: Maxwell had the fastest time of the day at Stanford, but both she and O'Keeffe won their respective races (quote below implies Maxwell beating O'Keeffe in direct competition, which wasn't the case). At Mt. Sac, O'Keeffe won by 20 seconds over a strong field and essentially solo'd the last two miles, so not sure that her race/effort was much different from Maxwell's similar victory.

In any event, both had fantastic seasons, and it will be interesting to see them compete in track this season. I predict Maxwell has edge at 1600 meters and O'Keeffe is slightly better at 3200.

Bill Meylan, on , said:

I also agree ... Fiona O'Keeffe is a huge talent, so I expect her track PRs will be lowered significantly in the coming seasons.

With respect to cross country, I consider Fiona O'Keeffe and Anna Maxwell to be relatively close in performance levels ... Maxwell did beat O'Keeffe handily at the Stanford Invite in late September (by 16 seconds), but O'Keefe did run 2 seconds faster at the Mt. SAC Invite and 9 seconds faster at the California State Meet ... However, in those races, Anna Maxwell was in different divisions than O'Keeffe and Maxwell won by huge margins with NO competition, while O'Keeffe had good competition to push her in both races ... One CA coach thought I should re-rate Maxwell's State Meet race because Maxwell's Division IV race was run at 1:00pm in the afternoon when it was warmer as compared to the Division I race at 8:30am.

RunSpokane
Thank for the quick reply Watchout and Meylan. I love what you guys do and like you said you two are usually pretty close. That's why it was surprising for me to see NXN so different.

It's interesting to see how both of you approach speed ratings.

Thank you for all you guys do for high school running.
Bill Meylan

RunSpokane, on , said:

Watchout and Meylan,

Why do your ratings for the boys NXN differ by so much? How did each of you choose your 200 mark?


As Watchout notes above, we use somewhat different methods and I think his method is completely valid and appropriate ... In general, we are fairly close in our assessments ... The difference in the NXN Boy's ratings is probably due somewhat to the methods, but also how I view the race as a handicapping assessment ... I approach NXN and Footlocker a bit differently than typical races during the course of a season and look for several potential different factors.

Assessing NXN is compounded by the enormous variability in the speed and conditions of Portland Meadows in December ... The difference in speed over the frozen tundra of 2013 and the swamp of 2012 is over 2 minutes (that's huge) ... and the variability in prior years is all over map ... It's not surprising that different people will have different assessments at times ... So the assessment of NXN is based almost entirely on assessing the runners as (1) individuals and (2) groups of runners.

Graphical evaluation is an important part of my methodology in comparing races ... I use it as one method of deriving a race adjustment ... I derive a separate race adjustment by comparing individual runners and teams to their speed ratings of prior races and then combine the two adjustments to derive the final speed ratings for the race.

I treat NXN a bit differently because a fair of number of runners run poor races at NXN compared to prior races (more so than seasonal races) and I am not forgiving in making that assessment ... It wasn't nearly as bad on the frozen tundra compared to the swamp of 2012, but it's still there ... I go through a process of excluding poor-performing runners and/or teams, and that exclusion process lowers the speed ratings somewhat because the remaining runners don't rate quite as good with the poor-performers removed.

I also go through an iteration process where I remove one or more complete teams from the results and rate those results separately for comparison ... For example, remove Gig Harbor and all teams that finished 12th or lower (teams finishing 2-11 "might" give a decent assessment on the speed assessment, but it requires other iterations).

Doing that, my 2013 NXN Boy's assessment was in-between whole numbers ... I like my race adjustment to be a multiple of three because I use a linear scale where 3 seconds equals 1 speed rating point for 5K races ... So Kai Wilmot became 199.0 rather rather than 200.0 (I am not forgiving at NXN).
watchout

RunSpokane, on , said:

Watchout and Meylan,

Why do your ratings for the boys NXN differ by so much? How did each of you choose your 200 mark?


For my part, it's probably two things:

1. I'm more dependent on what runners ran at NXR and State meets to influence how I view the NXN results (I know Meylan looks at that as well, but I don't think it's the biggest factor in developing his ratings - graphing the race plays a more important role in his system than in mine)

2. I only separate boys and girls ratings when the results suggest there is a notable difference in how fast the races were - and this race, to me, suggested a difference of 4-4.5 seconds at most, which wasn't enough for me to really worry about (that's within what I consider to be the margin of error, as it's only a difference of about 0.5%), especially considering when I looked at the ratings for athletes I kept good track of and saw that they tended to match a bit better (in the top half of each race) with the more combined rating, rather than the separated ratings. Note that the 200.0 marks for my girls ratings and his girls ratings are pretty similar (15:06 vs. 15:07.31) -- so any difference in the girls ratings, beyond 0.4 points, is due to my using a multiplier system rather than a straight +/- system (re: my ratings are 0.7 points higher for Efraimson, so at that level the multiplier vs. +/- system accounted for about a second's worth of difference in the girls ratings; for Courtney Smith, it was about 0.8 points, as it was a minute further from the 200.0 mark).
RunSpokane
Watchout and Meylan,

Why do your ratings for the boys NXN differ by so much? How did each of you choose your 200 mark?
Bill Meylan

watchout, on , said:

I agree: 5:03.75/10:40.17 to 10:13-10:14 would be a HUGE jump if it was completely indicative of where she was last year at her best. A more reasonable jump would be something like 10:20-10:25 to 10:13-10:14.


I also agree ... Fiona O'Keeffe is a huge talent, so I expect her track PRs will be lowered significantly in the coming seasons.

With respect to cross country, I consider Fiona O'Keeffe and Anna Maxwell to be relatively close in performance levels ... Maxwell did beat O'Keeffe handily at the Stanford Invite in late September (by 16 seconds), but O'Keefe did run 2 seconds faster at the Mt. SAC Invite and 9 seconds faster at the California State Meet ... However, in those races, Anna Maxwell was in different divisions than O'Keeffe and Maxwell won by huge margins with NO competition, while O'Keeffe had good competition to push her in both races ... One CA coach thought I should re-rate Maxwell's State Meet race because Maxwell's Division IV race was run at 1:00pm in the afternoon when it was warmer as compared to the Division I race at 8:30am.

Anna Maxwell finally had the opportunity to run against top runners at Footlocker Nationals and she ran very well in finishing 5th ... But Tessa Barrett did beat her by 23 seconds.

I'm still wondering how good Tessa Barrett actually is ... I think Barrett finished Footlocker with something "left in the tank" ... I don't think she knows her actual ability at this point in time, but she's very competitive .... A growing number of people believe she is capable of running competitively in an XC race with the top three from NXN ... Barrett did not displace them from the top of the rankings, but she has certainly made her presence known.

I knew virtually nothing about Tessa Barrett until she popped a huge performance at a PA invitational ... She was on crutches a year ago due to an injury ... she amazingly returned to run some indoor races and finished 4th at Indoor Nationals in the 5000 meters (16:42.99) losing to Wesley Frazier and Erin Finn by only 25 seconds when the National Indoor record was set ... Barrett set track PRs in outdoors at 1600m (4:55.63) and 3200m (10:25.16), and finished 4th in the Penn Relays 3000m (9:40.45) ... So her success in XC is not really that much of a surprise IF you knew who she was.

By comparison, Anna Maxwell has track PRs of 4:43.01 (1600m) and 10:10.51 (3200m) ... That 10:10.51 was run at the Arcadia Invite and her next best time at 3200m is 10:24.29 (nearly the same as Barrett's PR).
watchout

newfan, on , said:

People have been under-estimating O'keeffe all season. She was injured during FL last year and for most of the track season as a freshman. She only gradually came back to run in the final couple of meets to have the experience of the state meet. Her 1600 and 3200 times from last spring tell little about how fast she is. But, we shall see.


I agree: 5:03.75/10:40.17 to 10:13-10:14 would be a HUGE jump if it was completely indicative of where she was last year at her best. A more reasonable jump would be something like 10:20-10:25 to 10:13-10:14.
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newfan commented on a photo Dec 6th 2013, 4:37am
Looking good Davis!
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newfan
Looking good Davis!
 
newfan commented on a photo Dec 6th 2013, 4:33am
Go Davis! (California)
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newfan
Go Davis! (California)
 
newfan commented on a news article Nov 7th 2013, 10:27pm
O'keeffe was a couple of seconds faster than Maxwell at Mt. Sac behind Baxter and Ortega. One can quibble with any ranking, but O'Keeffe has only been beat by Baxter this year (at Clovis) and won against fast competition at Stanford and Mt. Sac.
26 comment(s)
chrisgoode

DougB, on , said:

Chris --

I'd be interested to know why Lauren was 30th last weekend at her sub-section meet. And for that matter, why Fiona O'Keeffe was 11th.

I get that it is a qualifying meet so maybe not a hard effort. Still, kind of puzzling.

I will definitely pay attention to how she does this weekend. Thanks.

http://redcaptiming....ace_08_d1vg.txt


You're right about it not being a hard effort. I believe both Davis and St. Francis tend to take it pretty easy and run together at Sub Sections. If you look at the results you can see that both O'Keeffe and LaRocco finished with many of their teammates. Today will be an interesting race!
DougB
Chris --

I'd be interested to know why Lauren was 30th last weekend at her sub-section meet. And for that matter, why Fiona O'Keeffe was 11th.

I get that it is a qualifying meet so maybe not a hard effort. Still, kind of puzzling.

I will definitely pay attention to how she does this weekend. Thanks.

http://redcaptiming....ace_08_d1vg.txt
chrisgoode

DougB, on , said:

I certainly don't see her as California No. 1. (Keep in mind that while she may have the No. 1 time in the state for 5K, she is No. 28 in the 3-mile and she ran at Mt. SAC. So her true ranking is obviously somewhere in between).

She was seventh-fastest at Mt. SAC. She ran that very fast time at The Other Meet but I have a hard time believing the validity of that distance as 5K when so many PRd by so much. She could possibly be honorable mention, but I'd like to see more.


LaRocco definitely deserves more than an honorable mention. Mt. Sac, while still a good race, was not a one of her better performances. She ran 17:48 at the Bronco Invitational in Folsom at Willow Hill Reservoir. That's a very fast time for that course. Also,the course for The Other Meet IS a true 5k. The course has changed in the past, but the race directors always go over it many times to ensure it's validity. Her times are fast and legit.

Here's a course tour of Granite Regional Park, from start to finish. The Other Meet is held here. Full 5k
300kicks

Bsarno1, on , said:

Which course?

St Paul's Concord NH

To give you a sense Guor Majak was NH State Runner-up that year

1 1 173 Mohamed Hussein NMH 2014 16:06 5:11
New record. Old record 16:11 by Guor Majak of Concord High in 2003
2 2 106 Ian Whittall ANDOVER 2014 16:12 5:13
3 3 143 Tyler Courville � PEA 2014 16:12 5:13
4 4 149 Marco Quaroni HOTCHKISS 2016 16:22 5:16
5 5 144 Samuel Gray � PEA 2014 16:28 5:18
6 6 148 Quincy Tichenor PEA 2015 16:32 5:20

1 1 6 Anoush Shehadeh ANDOVER 2015 17:38 5:41
New record. Old record 18:04 by Anoush Shehadeh of Andover in 2013
2 2 36 Sami Glass � HOTCHKISS 2014 18:20 5:55
3 3 15 Devinne Cullinane � DEERFIELD 2014 19:01 6:08
4 4 77 Caroline Sullivan NMH 2015 19:26 6:16
5 5 68 Olivia Mussafer NOBLES 2015 19:36 6:19
http://www.coolrunni...13NE_set3.shtml
ProFromDover
"been challenged yet."
---------------------
Abbie McNulty probably would have done that. They have a common opponent --Claire Howlett-- with pretty much the same w margin. I don't know much about the regional Nike venues, but they could meet there?

NEPSAC schools have a limited schedule. Shehadeh did beat some college runners and a talent in Samantha Glass for the preppy championship. Both could do well @ FL-NE. Barrett,Weisner,Reilly,Clahane,Shehadeh might look like an early top-5.
Bsarno1

300kicks, on , said:

Flying under the radar for most of the season, racing NE Prep School duals.
Anoush Shehadeh PHILLIPS ANDOVER (Larchmont NY) 2015 17:38 5:41 CR
5th @ FLNE in '12
Cream Rising

Which course?
300kicks
Flying under the radar for most of the season, racing NE Prep School duals.
Anoush Shehadeh PHILLIPS ANDOVER (Larchmont NY) 2015 17:38 5:41 CR
5th @ FLNE in '12
Cream Rising
DougB
I actually spoke to Hannah earlier today.

She told me she stayed with the pack for about two miles but then tore off on one of the downhills. I guess there are a couple of hills and then the final mile or so is mostly down.

What is interesting about her -- like some of the other top girls -- is that they haven't really been challenged yet. Hannah thinks she could probably dig a little deeper, although she said New Englands was her biggest effort to date because she had a little bit of rest ahead of it.

"I feel like if there's somebody with me, I could probably push a little bit harder," she said.
Bsarno1
Would love to see splits from DiBalsi at new England's. Video shows her running close to leaders at first post And then with a significant leader at the second Not sure exactly where on course video clips are from but the overall impression is that of a big surge in the middle of the race. Agree that field was exceptional this year with top ten including runners who were national class in track, from 800 to 5k, last spring. They all can't make it to the muddy Meadows or sunny Footlocker although RI girls are on teams, LaSalle and Barrington, who deserve a shot NXN. Northeast has too many good runners. New York and New Jersey results indicate an abundance of talent, but still a lot of racing left in NJ to pare down leaders before national qualifiers. Same for Mass.
There also seems to be plenty of quality in Pennsylvania for starters.
Nationally, however. I do not see anyone, except DiBalsi, displacing the current top six yet. She seemed to have a competitive fire at NBON and in interviews which belies her relative in experience compared to Baxter, Efraimson et al.
And is there another Abby D'Agostino hiding in the pack. After all Abby ranks 65th all time at Franklin Park in Boston.
SteveU
That was a good girls' field and some very impressive times.

DougB, on , said:

That's a 15-second course record of an Erin Sullivan record. Impressive stuff.
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newfan commented on a news article Jul 19th 2013, 2:40am
Really nice summary. Thanks for this. It is great to get some analysis from someone who has the interest, depth and the right outlook. These may be excellent athletes, but they are kids, and fine kids too.
2 comment(s)
newfan
Really nice summary. Thanks for this. It is great to get some analysis from someone who has the interest, depth and the right outlook. These may be excellent athletes, but they are kids, and fine kids too.
SteveU
Thanks!
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