{"comments":{"935912":{"pb_id":"43690","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"935912","comment_id":"935912","member_id":"43690","comment":"People have been under-estimating O'keeffe all season. She was injured during FL last year and for most of the track season as a freshman. She only gradually came back to run in the final couple of meets to have the experience of the state meet. Her 1600 and 3200 times from last spring tell little about how fast she is. But, we shall see.","date_added":"Dec 15th 2013, 7:32pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198346,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"newfan","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43690","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/newfan.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1079915"},"935899":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"935899","comment_id":"935899","member_id":"43715","comment":"Why would you have an issue with my NXN ratings, when they are higher than Meylan's?
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\nA 160 is rare. The fact that 3 girls ran ratings that higher than that is extraordinary. It is All-Time caliber. It's like 3 runners that go sub-10 in the same 3200m race in track, with the leaders around 9:50-9:52... never happened before (closest was Hasay vs. Chetelat in '08, but slightly faster and with a third runner in the mix). So I'm not sure what the problem is with the ratings. They are the three highest ratings ever at NXN, and there have been some very good girls that have raced at NXN.
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\nAnd yes, I know she is from California. It was a typo when I was quickly transferring data (saw "Davis" for the school, typed UT instead of CA because I didn't look in the parenthesis and didn't look at the runner's name). I fixed that as soon as I saw your first post in this thread.
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\nDo you think O'Keeffe is that much faster than 10:13-10:14 for 3200m? You do realize her PR's are only 5:03.75\/10:40.17? And you do realize that the same rating at Woodward would be ~16:54, 5 seconds faster than she ran at state?
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\nAs for the rest of California... as you can tell by what I wrote in my "By the Numbers" article reviewing the NXN meet, there were many California runners that had good days at NXN.
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\n
\nThat's why I mentioned the difference between my ratings and Meylan's, and why I specifically pointed out what 3200m times would correlate to the ratings. I don't think you have a problem with my ratings for NXN, as much as a misunderstanding of how good those ratings actually are.","date_added":"Dec 15th 2013, 7:11pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198346,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"935425":{"pb_id":"49498","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"935425","comment_id":"935425","member_id":"49498","comment":"
<\/a>watchout, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>drarcher, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>watchout, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>MatthewXCountry, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>watchout, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>Bsarno1, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>RestoringTradition, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>RestoringTradition, on , said:<\/p> <\/a>DontStopPre, on , said:<\/p>
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\nFYI, for a more understandable comparison, in my estimation a 160 is ~ 10:00 for 3200m and 152.5 is ~ 10:13-10:14
\n
\nEDIT: If you want another opinion, Meylan just posted his ratings for FLN.
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\nHe gave O'Keeffe a 151.63, and Devin Clark (FLN#12) a 151.67.
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\n
\nMy beef isn't the estimate of FLN it's the estimate of NXN. You don't have the same amount of data from that course. Each year the course is so different (unlike FLN). Fiona O'Keeffe (from CA not UT) just ran 16:59 at woodward (17:30), Marissa Williams ran 17:04 at woodward (18:01 at NXN and ran 17:41 last year at FLN), Destiny Collins ran a 17:09 at woodward (18:13.1) Robinson 17:16 at woodward (17:51 at NXN), Bethan Nights 17:07 at woodward (18:14 at NXN), Addi Zerrenner 17:17 at woodward (19:07 at NXN), Leigh Moffett 17:24.1 at woodward (18:57 at NXN)
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\nBased on your course rating of NXN, I think you would say that besides Baxter, no CA individual ran even remotely comparable to their woodward performance, which is possible.","date_added":"Dec 15th 2013, 5:04pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198346,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"MatthewXCountry","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=49498","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/MatthewXCountry.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1194309"},"935371":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"935371","comment_id":"935371","member_id":"43715","comment":"
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\n
\nBecause she ran better at FLN than NXN, and what I posted was the best performances of the two meets combined.","date_added":"Dec 15th 2013, 5:53am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198346,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"935369":{"pb_id":"53089","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"935369","comment_id":"935369","member_id":"53089","comment":"
\n
\nFYI, for a more understandable comparison, in my estimation a 160 is ~ 10:00 for 3200m and 152.5 is ~ 10:13-10:14
\n
\nEDIT: If you want another opinion, Meylan just posted his ratings for FLN.
\n
\nHe gave O'Keeffe a 151.63, and Devin Clark (FLN#12) a 151.67.
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\n
\nNot sure how you put Clark at 16th ahead of a bunch of girls who just beat her at NXN where she finished 27? You have her ahead of Anna French who finished well in front of her when they went head to head a week ago at NXN.","date_added":"Dec 15th 2013, 5:46am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198346,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"dra","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=53089","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/drarcher.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1334077"},"934544":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"934544","comment_id":"934544","member_id":"43715","comment":"
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\n
\nmaybe I overestimate FLN (a poster on Letsrun said the same thing when I compared Woodward to Balboa), but I have the 200.0 marks at 15:07.31 for NXN and 15:13.83 for FLN.
\n
\nFYI, for a more understandable comparison, in my estimation a 160 is ~ 10:00 for 3200m and 152.5 is ~ 10:13-10:14
\n
\nEDIT: If you want another opinion, Meylan just posted his ratings for FLN.
\n
\nHe gave O'Keeffe a 151.63, and Devin Clark (FLN#12) a 151.67.","date_added":"Dec 14th 2013, 7:30pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198346,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"934538":{"pb_id":"49498","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"934538","comment_id":"934538","member_id":"49498","comment":"
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\nStrong year out West, and should be again next year!!
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\nBy the way, using my NXN ratings from this year and average FLN ratings of the last half decade... here's how my top 25's would shake out if you combined the meets -
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\nBoys =
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\n
\nNXN = 15
\nFLN = 10
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\n(note: boys ratings based on all times rounded UP to the next second, since that is how NXN recorded their times; girls were all to the tenth of a second)
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\nGirls =
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\nNXN = 10
\nFLN = 16 (Werner made the list twice, though her NXN race was better than FLN)
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\n
\nI don't know about that. How are you rating the NXN course this year? The list for the girls seems skewed towards FLN. I think O'Keefe's in 4th at NXN had in that race was equivalent to winning the FLN race this year. Efraimson, Cranny and Baxter are all time greats, that went head to head. Rarely do runners at that level get good competition, and we saw the result. I understand that it's hard to do historical numbers on NXN, because of the wildly different conditions from year to year, so it's almost impossible to do a good statistical comparison.","date_added":"Dec 14th 2013, 7:20pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198346,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"MatthewXCountry","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=49498","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/MatthewXCountry.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1194309"},"934532":{"pb_id":"45158","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"934532","comment_id":"934532","member_id":"45158","comment":"
\nShould be some hot running next fall for northeast girls with numbers 2-5 at FL all due back next year. Doubt any are ready to challenge Efraimson..but DiBalsi and Gess should mover closer in the spring. And Shahadeh is a wild card.
\nNot fair to use Werner has a standard to measure both races. The courses and how the races were run were vastly different.
\nWould not want to pick no. 1 among boys. Could make strong argument for either. Might go down to head to head in Washington between Dressel and Wilmot. If former had edge than Fischer is No. 1. If not he is no. 2, maybe.
\nWhat a difference between NXN and FL...the hills in San Diego really are a factor missing in Portland.
\nGreat year for the Northwest...hope there is an opportunity for Gig Harbor, Dressel, Efraimson to show their stuff nationally in the spring.
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\n
\nFor Dressel there will be ... just running a GSL league meet is tough competition.","date_added":"Dec 14th 2013, 7:01pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198346,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"DontStopPre","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_wally_id":"1182171"},"934529":{"pb_id":"45736","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"934529","comment_id":"934529","member_id":"45736","comment":"Deena Kastor could have used some support or a spotter. During interview, She asked Hannah DiBalsi about running with the leaders when the Conn. girl was not in the picture came front was until the last mile. Kastor might have confused her with Barrett who showed she is a tough front runner turning back several challengers. The three northeast leaders must have posted the best final mile or 1,000 splits.
\nShould be some hot running next fall for northeast girls with numbers 2-5 at FL all due back next year. Doubt any are ready to challenge Efraimson..but DiBalsi and Gess should mover closer in the spring. And Shahadeh is a wild card.
\nNot fair to use Werner has a standard to measure both races. The courses and how the races were run were vastly different.
\nWould not want to pick no. 1 among boys. Could make strong argument for either. Might go down to head to head in Washington between Dressel and Wilmot. If former had edge than Fischer is No. 1. If not he is no. 2, maybe.
\nWhat a difference between NXN and FL...the hills in San Diego really are a factor missing in Portland.
\nGreat year for the Northwest...hope there is an opportunity for Gig Harbor, Dressel, Efraimson to show their stuff nationally in the spring.","date_added":"Dec 14th 2013, 6:55pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198346,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"Bsarno1","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=45736","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/Bsarno1.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1116260"},"934528":{"pb_id":"45158","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"934528","comment_id":"934528","member_id":"45158","comment":"
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\n
\nThat's correct, West is the youngest by far. At FL West 1-6 were juniors. 9\/10 were seniors from South and NE. 6\/10 were seniors from MW.","date_added":"Dec 14th 2013, 6:53pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198346,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"DontStopPre","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_wally_id":"1182171"},"934527":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"934527","comment_id":"934527","member_id":"43715","comment":"
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\n
\nHardy, Hurlock, Corcoran and Kramer were the only senior qualifiers out of the west. Corcoran and Kramer were two of the last three finishers from the West (#14 and 23).
\n
\nStrong year out West, and should be again next year!!
\n
\nBy the way, using my NXN ratings from this year and average FLN ratings of the last half decade... here's how my top 25's would shake out if you combined the meets -
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\nNXN = 15
\nFLN = 10
\n
\n(note: boys ratings based on all times rounded UP to the next second, since that is how NXN recorded their times; girls were all to the tenth of a second)
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\n+150.9 Taylor Werner MO (FLN)
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\nNXN = 10
\nFLN = 16 (Werner made the list twice, though her NXN race was slightly better than FLN)","date_added":"Dec 14th 2013, 6:53pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198346,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"934523":{"pb_id":"44264","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"934523","comment_id":"934523","member_id":"44264","comment":"Other than Hardy, I believe all of the high finisher today for the West team are juniors as well.","date_added":"Dec 14th 2013, 6:40pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198346,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"RestoringTradition","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=44264","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/RestoringTradition.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1201183"},"934515":{"pb_id":"45158","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"934515","comment_id":"934515","member_id":"45158","comment":"It was an exciting finish! Much different than Wilmot running away from the field at NXN, this was a classic back and forth duel between Dressel and Fisher with Fisher getting the win. VERY tactical and a number of "polite" elbows thrown here and there lol.
\n
\nEDIT: maybe 2014 will be the year of the double Spokane National Champions ... Tanner Anderson at NXN and Dressel at FL (of course the competition will be fierce, Fisher is also a Junior in the senior heavy FL field).","date_added":"Dec 14th 2013, 6:27pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198346,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"DontStopPre","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_wally_id":"1182171"},"934513":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"934513","comment_id":"934513","member_id":"43715","comment":"
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\n
\nGreat race!
\n
\nWashington boys with 5 different top-6 finishers at nationals this year! And Oregon with another!
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\nEDIT: Also, including Efraimson, that makes 4 different top-3 finishers at nationals!","date_added":"Dec 14th 2013, 6:22pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198346,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"934512":{"pb_id":"45158","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"934512","comment_id":"934512","member_id":"45158","comment":"Wow so close to ANOTHER national champion from Spokane. So close. Great job Johnny Dressel, 2nd place is incredible.","date_added":"Dec 14th 2013, 6:18pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198346,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"DontStopPre","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_wally_id":"1182171"},"934385":{"pb_id":"89","pb_type":"mgroups","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"934385","comment_id":"934385","member_id":"3026","comment":"#FLCCC Just over 3 hours to race time! Webcast here: http:\/\/footlockercro...video_id=101534<\/a>","date_added":"Dec 14th 2013, 2:09pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":{"wally_id":"35","email_settings":"7168","email":"chrisnickinson@gmail.com","address":"chrisnickinson","gender":"m","member_id":"3026","member_name":"Chris Nickinson","avatar_location":"av-3026.jpg","avatar_type":"upload","avatar":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-3026.jpg"},"can_delete":false,"item_id":198346,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"members\/images\/4\/189446.jpg","pb_title":"RunnerSpace.com\/HighSchool","pb_url":"gprofile.php?mgroup_id=89","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/HighSchool.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"8"}},"last_id":"934385","url":"comments.php?item_type=news&item_id=198346&item_url=profile.php?member_id=43690"}